Did we just end 20 years of war in Afghanistan – no, combat operations ended 28 December 2014 (1). At this time the mission changed from combat to support and training. This change was formed from a separate agreement between the Taliban, U.S., NATO and the New Afghanistan government. With this draw down to about 13,000.
President Trump came to an agreement with the Taliban to facilitate the U.S. /NATO withdraw. Under the agreement, the militants also agreed not to allow al-Qaeda or any other extremist group to operate in the areas they control. “I really believe the Taliban wants to do something to show we’re not all wasting time,” Mr Trump added. “If bad things happen, we’ll go back with a force like no-one’s ever seen.” (2) President Trump’s deal had a closure time, but it was hinged on the fact nothing went wrong, not like President Biden’s pull out which had no deals as such. In his speech in July (3) there are a lot of words but to me there is nothing said to really keep the Taliban in line. Along with President Biden’s weak international appearances, his handling of many U.S. problems and situations, I feel the Taliban and others “smell” weakness in the leadership of the United States and I grant they will exploit this to its fullness, which they have done. Looking over the track record of Obama/Biden administration I am guessing “they” know “they” can step over the line and nothing will be done, which we have just seen. So what does this mean to us now?
I am not a military analysts, I am a retired Sergeant Major and I will express how I see things.. Before this all happened, I am guessing the leadership of the Taliban and other terrorists groups have had a meeting and figured out there is “weakness” in the U.S. Leadership. Just like working with horses, if you have any kind of fear around a horse, it can smell it and will use it against you. The world has smelt the weakness, seen how the Biden administration is handling things. Look at the southern U.S. border, it is wide open, no one is getting stopped. What better way to infiltrate terrorists into the States! The Taliban saw this opportunity and I will bet you my bottom dollar terrorists are on the way or already here, crossing the southern border.
With the fall of Kabul, we have created what will be a massive human problem for many countries around Afghanistan and the rest of the world. People will be getting out of Afghanistan any way they can, causing an economic and humanitarian situation for the rest of the world. These problems will be taken advantage of by not only the Taliban, but every other terrorist group in the world. With the fall of Kabul, the U.S. fleeing with its tail between its legs, it is giving a ripened field for the Taliban to harvest and use. We seen before what they were capable of, and I am guessing we will be seeing more of the same now.
We saw once what happened when the U.S. and allies did a complete pull out after a war, WWI. In less than 20yrs after the end of WWI, Germany was back into full military production, against the agreements signed at the end of WWI. There was no one there to ensure the articles of surrender were carried out. We learned our lesson, after WWII the U.S. and Allies stayed and are still in Europe is some form. Same in Japan, the U.S. still has a presence here as well, even though there is no war in Europe or Japan.
Again, after the armistice was signed in Korea, the U.S. still maintains bases in South Korea. What do you think would have happened if the U.S. completely pulled out? The war in Korea is not officially over, only an armistice. The North has rattled its saber many times and there is no doubt in my military mind if the U.S. was gone, the North would have come back down again.
So back to Afghanistan, after 2014 we were in a different roll, support and training. Look at the make up of the troops stationed there, they were trainers and advisors. Many Army Reserve Training Brigades were called up to send trainers over. Special Forces were sent to train as well. Along with these were the intel sections, sent to gather info to help support the up coming Afghan army. Along with these air support remained to support the up coming Afghan army. With our complete pull out, all this support was going to be withdrawn, as Afghanistan had been give aircraft, we had trained their pilots, they could do their own intel. In my eye, this was a big mistake. You can look at a chart showing casualties by the month since our involvement in Afghanistan (4). From the time we took on the training/support mission U.S. casualties were greatly reduced. If you look at the number of casualties in Europe, Korea and other parts of the world where U.S. troops are stationed, yes, soldiers are going to die, this is just the facts of the job. In my eyes we were justified in staying in this roll, as long as there was a strong leadership in the U.S., and the world leaders could see it.
With the down fall of Kabul and the “smell of weakness” sensed by world leaders, what are the aspects for Taiwan, Ukraine? Look at the saber rattling China is doing in the South China Sea and their expansion ideas. They are threatening Japan, Taiwan, believing the U.S. will do nothing as shown in Kabul. What will Putin do with Ukraine? In the past eight months the U.S. has dropped substantially as the Leader of the Free World. Going from being energy independent, we are now dependent. The Keystone XL pipeline got canceled with many losing their jobs, yet in the blink of an eye, Biden gives Putin the OK for a pipeline to supply Europe, go figure. So, we have gone from America first to America last. Biden asks OPEC to increase oil production, yet has blocked much in the U.S.(5). No wonder the world is looking at the U.S. with questions in their eyes and east/west shaking of heads.
In conclusion, I feel we were wrong to pull out of Afghanistan as we did. We have opened up a whole new can of worms which is not good for the U.S. and the free world. Many Arab counties are singing praises at the raise of the Taliban and fall of the U.S. and I am afraid the worst is yet to come. Looking back, this is not the country I, so many years ago swore to protect and defend, but I am hopeful true Americans can and will rise up and makes the changes necessary to make and keep America Great.
(1) https://www.britannica.com/event/Afghanistan-War/U-S-troop-surge-and-end-of-U-S-combat-mission
Thoughts of a Crazy Old Man 